New poll indicates Texas Republicans are in trouble in November

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(The Center Square) – A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll of likely Texas voters shows close races in November with some Republican candidates in trouble. 

One hundred days from the midterm election in a state where Republicans should be far ahead in the polls, in three key races they aren’t, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Austin-based TPOR. 

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by five points, 45% to 40%, a two-point increase from May. 

Talarico posts strong margins with voters who self-identify as moderate (+34) and independent (+20), according to the poll. 

His lead “is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins,” TPOR says.

“Talarico holds the best statewide net favorability rating of any figure we tested (+12) while Paxton holds the worst (-13),” it adds. 

Talarico has also far outraised Paxton, bringing in $30 million to Paxton’s $9 million in the last quarter, according to campaign finance reports.

An April TPOR poll had Paxton defeating incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by eight points in the May Republican runoff election. Paxton won by 28 points.

In the governor’s race, Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by three points, 45% to 42%, with 10% still undecided, according to the TPOR poll. In previous elections, Abbott has won by a landslide.

According to a June University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, Abbott has a 46% job approval rating. Among independents, his negative job approval rating increased to 61% last month. Paxton has a negative 47% approval rating, according to the poll.

The UT/Texas Politics poll shows the U.S. Senate race is statistically tied, with Paxton leading Talarico by one point, 43% to 42%. Abbott also leads Hinojosa by 7 points, 47% to 40%.

Both polls show a close race for attorney general. 

Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton and Democrat state Sen. Nathan Johnson are statistically tied, with Middleton leading Johnson 39% to 38%, according to the TPOR poll. It notes that 18% remain undecided.

The UT/Texas Politics poll has Middleton leading Johnson by 5 points, 41% to 36%. “Here, too, both major party candidates have consolidated their partisan supporters, while independents also lean toward the Democratic candidate with a large share still undecided,” it says.

Republicans are expected to lose big in November nationwide partially due to a “lack of enthusiasm reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters – who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action,” the Washington Post reported. The super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch said “1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November” because they are likely to stay home.

The news comes as the U.S. House Ethics Committee has opened another investigation into another incumbent Republican Texas congressman, this time U.S. Rep. Lance Gooden from north Texas. 

The last Texas congressman the committee investigated is outgoing U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Republican from the largest border district. Gonzales refused to resign but was forced to drop his reelection bid after two affairs he had with staffers were confirmed, including one who killed herself, The Center Square reported. Gonzales was among 32 members of Texas’ congressional delegation who voted against releasing information about which members have used taxpayer funds to pay sexual harassment claims.

Many Texas Republicans, especially in rural areas, have expressed opposition to the state’s $1 billion voucher program giving taxpayer money largely to Christian private schools. They argue the plan isn’t fiscally or socially conservative and Abbott demonized conservatives who opposed it. Texas Republicans and conservatives also overwhelmingly oppose big tech advancing artificial intelligence in the classroom, championed by the Trump administration.

They also overwhelmingly oppose data center expansion in Texas, which Republican state lawmakers, including Abbott, have championed over the last decade, including giving data centers billions in tax breaks. Months before the election they are now reversing course, The Center Square reported.